The probabilistic mechanics and uncertainty modeling area focuses on the development of accurate and efficient probabilistic methods to quantify the reliability, reduce over-conservatism, and identify critical parameters and failure modes that govern the reliability of complex, large-scale engineering applications. Particular emphasis includes the application of advanced probabilistic methods for computationally intensive, physics-based models of high reliability applications where traditional Monte Carlo simulations are impractical. Novel methods are developed to incorporate expert opinion into the probabilistic analysis without introducing biases in the representation of sparse data.
